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Weekend De-Brief and Action Plan
Hope everyone is having a restful weekend so far. My view is we need to pivot back to the long side a bit after hedging out. QQQ qualified a TDST break the prior week so the bias remains bullish for more upside to complete 13 sequentials. The idea was also to hedge out a little bit last week for a quick pause considering we have rallied almost every single day for two weeks, so that was a decent hedge which came to fruition nicely.
Shorting banks was one of the strongest ideas that we had late last week, but now some names look like they might be coming into a stronger buy point. Why? Well, higher rates typically means higher financing activities as FOMO starts to creep in. From residential mortgages to buying out car leases, higher rates are here to stay in the medium term most likely. Regional banks like CFG should start to get that bid.
Same deal on KEY here because we are back into the weekly trend level.
If you shorted NMR though, I would not be in any rush to cover. This chart looks brutal.
ARKK is really starting to look like a big long here
GME I'm not afraid of playing this on the long side as it looks like it might have bottomed in the medium term as well. The shares outstanding is very different to AMC and the upside break of trend could mean it could pop higher.
Across the macro space, we still see front month eurodollars as a possible long trade in the medium term. DeMARK 13 combo bottoms coupled with the fact that they are now pricing in consecutive rate hikes means that these are most likely kind of cheap relative to the possible impacts of yield curve inversion in one year.
I'm also looking at homebuilders as a possible long setup on homebuilders, yet again. TD Combo 13 is the stronger signal that we have along with the fact that equities might start to perk up again here.
Meanwhile, Natural Gas looks like its showing exhaustion in the medium term. TD Sequential dual 13 puts us in a slightly defensive position, especially given just how quick the demand run ups can be dwindled lower. Its easier to short after confirmation in my view, at least a TD Price Flip lower (close < close from 4 bars prior). We are holding below TDST so far.