One of the greatest market patterns, like EVER, is the down Friday / Down Monday SPX pattern for Tuesday. Most people use the term "turnaround Tuesday" lazily without any actual regard to the drivers of the pattern. For example, did you know that Tuesday actually has a negative expectation on a closing basis if Monday was an up close?

Now let us take a look at a down Monday.

Yes, don't fall victim to lazy market cliches. Test everything. If someone tells you it's Tuesday and the market should turn higher, take a look at Mondays close.

One of the cardinal sins in statistics is adding more independent variables than you need to. I really should not be testing "Down Friday AND Down Monday" because the gist is, Monday down is all that matters for the pattern. Anyway, here are the stats:

This is incredibly bullish. When you are pushing T-stats to 3 with 167 observations and a profit factor profile into 2, you don't want to be on the wrong side of that.

Furthermore, SPX seasonality is about to really TURN UP.

Now, time for the ambiguity. Sorry, but we should address the risks.

First off, this vol profile does not look bullish for markets at all. I like to call this the vol creeper pattern. I am and always will be quite the permabull and believer that volatility is mean reverting. Having said that, volatility expansion only happens when its already creeping up like this. You don't just go from 12 VIX to 40 in a day. Exhibit A: the creeper pattern in VXX

Furthermore, sorry to say this, but all of you spus traders are actually bitcoin traders. The chart below overlays March S&P futures with Bitcoin (blue line). If you are going to be doing anything in this market, make sure crypto is on your side. I don't make the rules, I'm just observing.

Anyway, you see the risk and the reward. Now is not a time to be a hero. Control your risk always. If trades do not work within 30 minutes in this market, chances are there is more pain on the horizon.