Trades and trades
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Now, let's get into the trades for the week. Below is the broad context that we are looking at.
Broad Market Analysis (PRIVATE FOR PLUS SUBS) by pivotanalytics on TradingView.com
This Microstrategy chart is telling a story that lines up with the core idea for this week, things are going to get a little choppy I think. We are retesting a decade plus long trend line from below. This line has worked so well in the past that it is hard to ignore and we are fast approaching those levels again. I'm going to playing tactical shorts on MSTR this week.
Just remember that MSTR is basically a BTC proxy, so this should also come off slightly this week. I was surprised at the lack of a real substantial rally in crypto given how risk on the market was. This is a signal to me and I think my eyes are wide open this week for some chop sideways to down across all markets.
If you want to short bonds, this is going to be your week. With the drastic rise in energy prices over the last few sessions, its hard not to imagine this impacting inflation expectations even further and thus cratering bonds further. This is why I think markets will have a tough time, because rates might go up and thus lowering bond prices.
I want to be long biotech and this flag pattern seems like such a great risk reward against last week's low, but I would imagine there isn't much positive expected value if I am right on rates. Having said that, lets say I am wrong on rates and bonds just fly higher regardless of what energy is doing, I would just flat out buy IBB and Biotech giants. This is very much at the top of my list for relative strength if the market is going to be okay.
BAC is at the 38.2% retracement and breaking out. This I could see working well even if rates go up. Very, very clean chart and actionable to me. At the top of the list with biotechs.
Speaking of financials, look at this SICK visa coil up. I'm just going to buy it flat out with a tight stop.
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