Signals Are Getting More Clear
First lets cover stocks:
So the last few days I have been light on the content / predictive views. We had a pretty good call to lighten up but now we are digesting and holding firm in the medium term across stocks. I'm still a little bit cautious in the medium term after being very bullish lower. Right now is when we can really start to see stock bond rotations come to life and the trend game seems like a tough one to play, at least for me.
DeMARK TDST resistance level should still act as short-term resistance, so play on the short side in my view for tactical trades while holding core stock longs. Sell premium where possible.
NVDA was up 10% today! This is not the sign of a particularly bearish market overall. Furthermore, the whole crypto space is rallying. Do we really want to be bearish with that backdrop? No way!
CRWD I'm getting ready to take some chips off the table on this one. This has been a great trade and I am seeing the recent hold / move higher in an otherwise weaker market as possible option-enabled squeezes. Today's open interest continues to be diverse and I think this could still squeeze higher. My model is showing me. I am expecting a pause at around 250 and holding for that profit target.
The 220 area holding on LOW could be a good setup. Homebuilders were hit quite hard today but it does seem bonds are getting a little bit cheap and I love the idea of fading duration scares. You sort of get two for one on the trade: stock beta (which is working) and if bonds mean revert, you get that upside. I like calls on this one.
PFE looks like a quick short here, love the setup as the DeMARK side is quite bearish
I don't have a lot to add except I will be trying tactical fixed income longs, especially on the steeper side. These STIRs/shorter end duration have really gotten ahead of themselves at this point. I really hate being on the same side as recession callers but it is hard to keep pressing this continuing, especially if oil starts to cool off.
It is hard to stay too bearish on oil while it is sitting above 100. Don't fade the front side of this move. Its holding and the real trade is actually to press to the long side. You know how many people will lose their mind at 150 oil? Bonds might never go up again, lol! (joking)
Copper looks very, very bullish. I have owned FCX since the low 30's and continue to.
Gold also looks strong
I'm looking for GDX entries near 34
And of course, crypto holding. This should really ring the alarm bells if you are bearish on risk.
So, the tldr version:
Medium term long risk as crypto and prior leadership comes back
Use TSLA, NVDA, BTC, ETH as proxies
Tactical short opportunities in ES for day trades on big up opens.
Tactical bull steepeners and short-rates on shorter-term duration.
Long commodities with a very tight trailing stop for upside convexity.