Risk Update

Bitcoin leading the charge on the downside. This has been the canary in the coal mine for a while given its broad correlation to risk assets

The short-term S&P gameplan is now invalidated pending this close. While we originally had a good bounce off the 9 buy setup and trend factor levels, this would now target us down to 4329 / 4130 on ES futures to capture TDST + Trend Factor.

Tech stocks (QQQ) however are fast approaching the TDST level at 328.

The 60M chart is on an 8/9 on the buy setup.

Stopped out of risk-on trades this morning across the board. What I am now looking at is to see how Tech will react to the TDST level and exhaustion on the short-term charts. If the reaction is swift and engulfs the declines we have seen over the last couple of trading sessions, the risk trade is still very much on. However, I am flat across the board and very light footed at the moment.

Biotechs completed 13 Combo counts

120M 13's and 9's on XBI

We mentioned how XLE should come off the highs. Very lackluster move relative to the rest of the market.

And in fact, hourly 9 buy setup in one of the safest parts of the market

Crude holding the 20EMA

Rates gameplan still on, if we go risk off rates should start to cool off a bit

DAX chart reversal here is not very bullish, now back below the 20/50 EMA

Gist here is back to wait and see mode.