Riding The Wave

I’ve basically thrown mean reversion out the window right now. Its been so tough to get things right on buying dips. However, getting bearish on stocks over the last couple of weeks has proven to be pretty lucrative (calling myself smart in third person).

You may ask me if my bearish posture has changed and I’d be lying to you if I say it has, especially after today’s downside trend break close. I do foresee that short-term the risk-reward is to play for reversion but on any pops we are seeing the sellers come in and push the markets lower.

Speaking of scorched, solar stocks look awful.

TAN just gave up the 200 week, with vigor.

Here is a complete list of these turds

NVDA breaking short-term trend a week before earnings..

Wayfair, eyeballing this strength.

OMI earnings fading after a pop back above the 200-day. A favorite setup of mine on short side.

AMD holding firm

COIN breakout retest

On my last post I was bullish on miners, had to eat my words/loss and think about shorting pops going forward via GDX

XLE was a nice long trade from 76 but I think its time to consider the short side on commodities

If you really want to be a gangster, consider doing a Transportation/Energy L/S to capture the freight rate differential between trucking and commodities normalizing. Ryder is at all time highs and breaking above 100. Dry Bulk index back to pre-Covid lows. Just saying.

Best of luck. PS if you like the charts, consider using TrendSpider. Its pretty nice.