Reading The Tape: S&P & Japan

DeMARK Macro Analysis

Well first, let’s cover what happened in markets today. Decent up open via positive NVDA earnings. A full gap fill, followed by a lower low. Basically, a wild outside day.

DeMARK 13 Sequential completed on the hourly chart of the S&P 500 March Future at the close. The cash index still has a 13 to complete on the downside, as we qualified a TDST downside break.

After Japanese inflation printed 4.2% YoY, Ueda said it was appropriate to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy as inflation has yet to sustainably and steadily meet the central bank's 2% target. Earlier this month, the government named the 71-year-old academic as its pick to become next central bank governor in hopes that YCC will come to an end in Japan.

Daily 9 sell setup completed on USDJPY, with active Combo and Sequential 13 on the 240M chart. Prices remain quite firm after the CPI numbers with the yen weakening up after initially dropping lower.

Tomorrow, bonds will open with an hourly 9 sell setup on TLT.

This is of course after mentioned the 13 Combo and 9 Sell setup on the 240M setup earlier in the week.

Watching the 240M TLT/SPY ratio showing a 9 sell setup below the TDST break on the 240M chart as well.

Positioning wise, I remain slightly neutral. I added some energy shorts and my gross exposure is now at around 80% with net beta closer to around 20% long. Also own some index puts for next week’s strike on QQQ as we could fill the gap down to 289 on QQQ.

Have to remember that SPY is still holding TD Prop down and right on TDST. Can’t get overly bearish but we did finally get an up close like we were waiting for to gracefully short and exit short term calls.

Best

P