PM Wrap, May 11th, 2022

After a strong morning, the market turned abruptly downward, ending the day down 1%. Crypto continued weak, with BTC breaking below the important $30,000 threshold. Tech in particular had a brutal day:

• Apple down (5.1%)

• Tesla down (7.9%)

• Facebook down (4.5%)

• NVDIA down (5.2%)

• Netflix down (6.5%)

Companies without cash flow are still getting slaughtered. Carvana was down another 18% today - down from $300 to $30 - Carvana's competitor VRM went from $60 to $1, so its easy to see why investors are worried and why Carvana had difficulty raising money in the junk market. Without EBITDA, your spreadsheet can justify $1,000 a share but it can also justify $1. Its looking like whole swaths of companies are going to equity purgatory.

Today's $36 billion 10-year auction was strong, with investors taking 88% and leaving dealers with only 12% of the inventory. Risk off is everywhere, even in the high-yield market, with the riskiest junk bonds, CCCs, selling off the most in the last 2 weeks:

The TerraUSD stablecoin rebounded to $0.72 as it is trying to get a bailout. The bad news in TerraUSD is not over: its difficult to see how a stablecoin can be repaired by anyone but a government.

Rivian closed down -9.6% to close at $20.60 but rebounded after-hours as the company released higher production targets. Just 2 days ago Ford sold 8 million shares of Rivian at $26 and Ford still owns 93 million shares. If Rivian rebounds at all, expect more shares to be added to the float.

Finally, and most obviously, the S&P500 breached the psychological $4,000 mark:

You will find today's post on the Vanguard VTI and bond market inflows interesting.