On & On

Whirling market storm,

Fortunes made and futures torn,

Volatility.

- ChatGPT (when prompted to write a haiku about vol)

Just going to update you all on the views here. First and foremost, the portfolio. I pretty much got things down to a beta of -.3 at this point with gross leverage around 1.2. This is coming from a beta of almost -0.8 and beta of 2 over the last week but as we will see from the charts, some risk management is going to be needed here.

So I am looking for some short-term support near 433. Clean uptrend buyers should start to come in as we retest major breakouts. This is the SPY chart below.

Also seeing a few confluent things coming in on IWM where buyers will start to perk some interest near the 200 week moving average and prior support.

There are also a few stocks I’m willing to bet on going higher here. I own some Home Depot here. The earnings momentum should be supportive here as it has in the past. Home Depot surpassed earnings forecasts with a $4.65 EPS, beating the expected $4.45 EPS. While experiencing a slight 2% YoY sales decrease due to cautious consumer spending on significant projects, the company's revenue of $42.92 billion outperformed the expected $42.23 billion

CMG is a gap fill monster, and someone else knows it too:

Now lets get into the not-so-great charts.

NVDA - I don’t like shorting strong names but this was too tempting in a down market and my short-term custom moving average resistance meeting this trend line.

Not to mention UBS, Wells and Baird all upgraded it 2 days ago.

I get a ton of hate for being bearish energy, but hey: its been working consistently when the technicals line up like they are again. CVX below is breaking down this medium term up trend below the 200 day moving average. I would be targeting the gap fill below recent lows.

Overall it just seems a little bit ambitious to just start buying this monthly chart on XOM. The trends are clearly rolling over and downside risks seem way more likely than upside risks (peaceful resolution in Ukraine, recession, China & trade etc).

But hey, who knows. On & On we go.