Market Update

Macro, DeMark, Volume, Quant

Yen with a DeMark 13 combo on the hourly. Sequential 13 on 30 minute. However, daily chart completed TD Propulsion up. A weaker dollar is welcome now.

Spus remain heavy but if the dollar continues its downside momentum and yields push off into NFP, we have essentially created a short-term cushion into the prior months value area high. We are also now trading 2 standard deviations away from the weekly VWAP. Please recall I have been positioned short, but starting to lighten up tactically.

We do still have a qualified TD Propulsion down to 376 on SPY. This is 3876 on S&P Futures. Remember the contract roll is coming up soon too.

SVB was a nice scapegoat for an already weak market. The issuance doesn’t seem that material for me and honestly makes sense for a backwards way of getting allocation to high levered VC deals that have been put under pressure in a weaker market / economy. What other choice do they really have?

Speaking of short dollar, I think it’s time for miners. Downside 13’s completed today.

Also, IFYKYK

Notes are now firmly above last month’s VAL.

Anyway, the gist is that these are extremely volatile markets that hinge on the sneeze of a non-voting Fed member. Tomorrow’s unemployment numbers regardless of their top line number can be interpreted in either direction.

Oh the job market is hot?!? More rate hikes! = Weaker stocks and higher dollar = Stronger stocks because cuts will be priced = ???

Just trade on the edges and focus on the big picture. Things are in a down trend for the most part. I could see them toying with late sellers tomorrow.

Best of luck.