Market Timing Scans For The Week Of 3/13/2022
Hope you all had a restful weekend. Below is my current reading of DeMARK and Wave analysis across most markets. Fyi, feel free to drop a comment on the main website or reply if you would like me to cover a specific market not mentioned. Be on the lookout for a "dashboard" section on the website coming soon.
Let's begin with US Stocks. SPY daily counts are still expected to complete a few countdowns in the short term (this week) before the DeMARK sequential will trigger a sentiment shift towards upside against the low region. Given the choppy nature of the market, I am now waiting for these countdowns to complete before pulling trigger on beta.
This weekly range is very, very critical. The weekly 9 buy setup off the TDST level with a qualified risk level upside break last year makes this look like just another standard correction from a DeMARK perspective. If we hold here, upside targets that risk level near 490 in my view on SPY.
Furthermore, the underlying breadth indicators are starting to point to possible downside exhaustion. The pieces of the puzzle are starting to come together.
Weekly cash index on the US 10 year is showing DeMARK upside exhaustion. I'm actually in the camp that fading this bond trend at the moment is extremely risky. The risk-reward makes a lot of sense to maybe try some bond longs, but from my experience on being on the losing side of a bond long during big shifts in yield curve dynamics -- its always better to wait and get an obvious base pattern to be long bonds instead of trying a dangerous lower expected value long play when yields are close to making new highs again.
I'm actually looking for the long bond to break these lows. If the most a full on baltic-war with the threat of nukes and a third Cold War could muster a meager rally like this in the long bonds, I think the market is basically screaming in your face that inflation matters more.
I saw last week that Alcoa crossed 80 per share. 80!!! I'm now seeing prices flip below the TD Combo 13 weekly sell risk level and a 13 Daily Sequential with a price flip below lows and only 4/9 on the TD Buy Setup. It actually seems like the market has spoken that this could be a medium term top if prices don't get back above 82 this week.
Nobody wanted to reduce ABT when we had the TD Combo 13 at the highs via the weekly DeMARK count. On Monday, we will complete the daily TD Combo 13 into a weekly 9 buy count.
If one really wanted to get dangerous on the beta side, SE completed a weekly TD Combo 13. None for me yet, thanks.
PYPL completed the first weekly TD Sequential 13 in a very, long, long time.
Citigroup TD Combo 13 into support
XLF/SPY Ratio with the DeMARK 9 buy setup and price flip.
UPST same deal.
AMC is really just a perma-short at this point. Closing below the daily TDST = more downside trend.