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Market Tidbits 4-11-2022
The 10 year yield hit north of 2.75% today. The yield is now at trend levels we have not seen in years. Are bonds a buy here. I mean, maybe. We have been sticking with one common theme and that is if the Fed is hawkish, sell bonds! Nevertheless, I have also been trying my hand at dips unsuccessfully the last few trading sessions. Impossible to make on ideas in the 8th or 9th inning without getting caught trying to play mean reversion!
I will say I am in contact with some fixed income traders who have literally woken up everyday and sold bonds. That trade has not stopped working. It is also funny that even if the 10-year pulls back to 2.5%, that is basically where I was thinking it might be a good spot to buy bonds. Bear market in bonds.
Before we completely dismiss buying bonds, check out the CPI YoY chart that shows a DeMARK 13 Combo. I'm not a big market timer with indicators for economic data, but this has worked well in the past and inflation narratives do seem to be getting "peaky"
Are the bonds a buy? Well TLT has a TD Combo 13 active. So the risk-reward is to play for reversion, still.
Elsewhere in the market, crude is trying to hold the 93-94 range. We had a DeMARK 9 buy setup and holding the prior ATR range level. I'm not totally bullish if rates are going to revert in the medium term though. If oil went to 85, would that really invalidate a bull market?
ARKK price action was quite nice today, at key levels.
Likewise on Micron, which will get a 9 buy setup tomorrow.
Stay tuned later for a commodity chart book.