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Market And ETF Strategy
Uranium stocks presenting a 9 buy setup as of Friday's close. This is right into the measured move from the trend line breakdown. Although I think commodities across the board are at a make or break state, the risk-reward on the long side here is pretty good if Oil stays bid.
China names could have a breather here to complete the weekly DeMARK counts. We failed at the weekly TDMA1 on Friday along with the 50EMA. I'm not particularly excited about calling a bottom on this one based on the reaction that we saw. Back into "wait and see" mode and will be cashing out of of the core positions if the rest of the market is still risk off.
Gold Miners completed the TD 9 Buy setup. This comes into a cross market commodity pullback.
The most interest charts for me, hands down, is the trend exhaustion in the dollar that we have seen on both the daily and weekly charts. With both charts signaling the end of the upside move in the dollar, it would be interesting what ramifications of this could be especially in EM / rates.
Like I said about China FXI, it might be too early to call it a bull reversal based no Friday's price action. Especially on EEM where it failed the 20EMA nearly to the tick and completed a TD Differential down signal.
Nevertheless, we have an active 13 weekly buy signal and this could have been a double bottom in EM especially if the move in the dollar is going to reverse.
Now lets get to the meat of the pie. I've been bullish US risk, perhaps blindly, since the March lows when VTI printed 13's across the board. Friday's down leg was a signal to vastly reduce risk for the trade. With the Feb/ March lows (TDST) still very much in play with the weekly DeMARK TDST (low of the first bar from the 9 sell setup) we can't get too bearish at the very low end of the range. I do think however that the bears have a significant chance to press it lower here. Since we missed the bear trade on the pops, the risk reward is very poor to just short the hole here.
We are opening Globex with an hourly 9 buy setup.
Catch you all tomorrow. Main play is to try some commodity longs, China dips if the dollar turns.