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The stock market was all over the place on the prior close as investors looked at the January Consumer Price Index (CPI). The report showed that the total CPI increased 0.5% month- over-month, while core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.4% month-over- month. The yearly numbers were not as low as expected, but they did show a deceleration from peak inflation. The market reacted differently, with the Treasury market initially having a stronger response than the stock market.
The 2-yr note yield surged from 4.50% to 4.66%, while the 10-yr note yield jumped from 3.68% to 3.79%. The stock market started strong with early gains, but they quickly faded. The Nasdaq closed higher, thanks to some large-cap stocks, while most S&P 500 sectors registered a decline. The technology and consumer discretionary sectors led the outperformers.
The report shows a clear deceleration from peak inflation, but inflation rates are still too high to suggest the Fed would cut rates this year. The report's key takeaway is that investors should expect interest rates to remain unchanged for a while. On Wednesday, market participants will receive various economic data, including the weekly MBA Mortgage Index and the January Retail Sales report.
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