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Good Run, Good Time To Evaluate
The following below is from The Finance Professor:
The rally over the last week was refreshing. Pleased to say we were on top of it. Is it worth plunging into the markets now? Maybe perhaps, its a good time to evaluate positions whether you hold or sell.
First, last week was a particularly strong week, typical of a snap-back rally:
Morgan Stanley is calling this a "late cycle expansion" and that this is a good time to position defensively. The Finance Professor agrees. Morgan Stanley is also lowering European earnings estimates by 7%, due to vicious increases in fuel costs that far eclipse any bad news experienced by Americans. Remember, Germany gets a ton of natural gas from Russia.
Price/Sales is not the best way to measure valuation, but still, on a P/S basis, things are still very very expensive:
Finally, the Fed is not in accommodative mode right now, so this is not a time for any multiple expansion.
If you were going to buy, last week was a good time, not this week. Now is a good time to go through your holdings, one-by-one and say "hold or sell". If your stock can't substantiate a total return greater than 7%, you should sell it. Even with this pullback, 1/3rd of stocks won't make the cut.
We are back into DeMARK targets and proprietary trends hitting upside targets. This range between SPY 450-455 is a good place to re-eval positions one once to hold and wants to let go. I sold down some net losers and still holding names like CRWD, UPST and CCJ. Just a rebalance for me. Will have stronger thoughts after a down close or two.