Giving it a go
We knew that we eventually had to get a retrace. The question now is where do we come back into the market? I started buying some ARKK earlier this week which seems like it might have been more prudent to stay patient in above average volatility. My fear was pure FOMO, that the market might run away on a bull upswing like it has done for the last 10 years and leave bears in the dust. I'm now adding to some trades today.
ARKK reached the anchored VWAP. NVDA, one of my favorite stocks, is down 5% right now and coming into support zones for the next 5%. I'm not trying to be perfect here, but I'm legging into more weakness on this one.
AMZN as well, we cleared upside resistance and to me this is a big retest.
But the hawks continue. From Brainard yesterday to Barkin this morning
XOM bull flag looks good
We are basically seeing capitulation on the rate side today. I want to take the other side of this but it seems like buying tech is another avenue and don't want to spread myself too much to duration risks
Look, the gist is if you don't see a reversal over the next 48 hours, we are in a bear market in stocks. My take is that the upswing from March 14th told the story that stocks still want to go higher, and the marginal improvement in breadth was a sign of more things to come. That can quickly change in a market where headlines dictate strong flows for hours / days -- but we all have a process and need to stick by it.
XBI coming back to the 50 day moving average and has been outperforming
Lets see how the rest of the day shakes up.