AM Brew, Jun 30th 2022

Yesterday this column wrote that "things are worse than I thought". Today the equity futures are reflecting this view - down 1% across the board. A few weeks back, we noted it was a range trading market, but I would NOT be buying dips on a swing here. Yesterday's conclusion: steal don't buy.

Bed Bath is going bankrupt. With same stores down -27% plus a new chief accounting officer & head of treasury (in addition to a new CEO), its all over. Suppliers will be cutting back credit terms, if they grant any credit at all. The liquidity crunch will take out the equity, even if the stores survive. Of course, shorting it is a tad risky, as its a former meme stock with a small share count. I am going to short 0.5% (50 bps) - it looks like free money - they need to issue equity, it probably gets done at $1. Home furnishings is so 2021: RH is down big again this morning. RH is a very well run firm throwing off cash, but it is not anywhere close to a buy here.

Bitcoin seemed to have support at $20k, then $19k - for now BTC is holding the $19k support and Ether at $1k but there is no reason to buy crypto right now, none that I know about.

OPEC is expected to condone a production increase of 648,000 barrels a day, but production issues make this a likely optical event.

There is some good news this morning: consumer spending fell in May (on an inflation adusted basis) 40 bps and the core PCE index rose 0.3% which was less than expected. With prices so elevated and employers exhausted, it makes sense that inflation will tail off, especially non-energy related. Housing is going to be the first place where inflation stops. Inventories are finally rising. The Fed doesn't control inflation but they do control housing prices, which are the #2 input behind fossil fuel prices, which Powell can't control much .

I am waiting for capitulation to buy equities. A nasty 3.5% drop won't count - looking for one of those 2 hour capitulation selloffs in the 8% range, where there will be plenty of quality stocks on the borderline of cheap enough. Note that we are nowhere close to a buy in small & micro-cap-land.

We will find out if these declines are end-of-quarter related, but I can't see the rationale for buying ahead of earnings season. Rhyme for the day: wait for capitulate.